Newsletter: June Pulse Check - A brighter outlook?
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Friend, Is a brighter outlook ahead?
A blog post published by the New York Fed on June 16 suggests that the economic outlook may be brightening. While not an official forecast, their latest post points to higher output and lower inflation later this year and into early 2024. This is a marked revision from March’s forecast.
“Output growth is projected to be much higher throughout the forecast horizon than in March,” and “long-term inflation expectations have dropped by about 45 basis points in 2023…a very large change by historical standards.” Inflation expectations drop to 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025, down significantly from projections earlier this year. According to the new forecast, inflation returns close to the FOMC’s long-run goal of 2.0% inflation by the end of 2025.
In a presentation one day earlier at the Urban Land Institute’s midsummer meetings in Cincinnati, PNC’s senior investment strategist, Marc Dizard, pointed to a mixed outlook for the economy, noting both the strength in the labor market and resilient consumer spending on the one hand and persistent inflation and tightening credit on the other as just some of the mix of economic signals.
So, is the outlook brighter or “mixed”?
Perhaps the two points of view converge in Dizard’s comment that “the path forward continues to be driven by the path of inflation and the ongoing response from the Fed.” If inflation — and inflation expectations — moderate as the New York Fed suggests, and the Fed moderates its inflation response, the outlook could indeed be just a bit brighter.
As always, if you have any questions, please contact us. Until then, please enjoy this month's newsletter.
About AGM Financial
Founded in 1990, AGM is a leading FHA lender and GNMA seller/servicer. From new construction and substantial rehab to acquisition or refinance — for both market-rate and affordable projects — AGM gets the deal done. Family-owned with over 30 years of experience, the firm has closed over $9 billion in FHA-insured multifamily project loans nationwide. We underwrite, fund, and service all of our loans. Developers and owners can count on AGM to be accessible, transparent, consistent, and ready to lend. From new construction to substantial rehabilitation to acquisition and refinance — for both market-rate and affordable projects — we can get the deal done. To learn more about AGM, call 800.729.4266 or visit www.agmfinancial.com.
