At the National Association of Home Builders Fall Leadership Meetings recently held in Denver, builders and developers were both uncertain about current conditions and guardedly optimistic about the year ahead.
While 2025 has been a challenging year, many expressed hope for a stronger 2026, even if the way forward is still a bit unclear.
Tariffs and Immigration
Uncertainty surrounding tariff policy and the anticipated impact on lumber, cabinets, and other building materials is making it difficult to price projects with confidence. Many reported a steady “creep” in material costs as suppliers brace for potential tariff changes.
Adding to the uncertainty, builders from across the country are seeing job sites affected as workers—citizens, documented, and undocumented alike—are reluctant to report to work amidst immigration enforcement actions. This issue appears especially acute along the Gulf Coast, where Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama builders reported arrests that many described as indiscriminate. Builders worried about labor shortages expressed strong support for clearer pathways to legal status for skilled workers.
Resilience
Still, expected moves by the Fed to cut rates, changes in the regulatory environment, and a widespread acknowledgment of a need to address housing affordability were all reasons for hope. Our clients, too, are showing resilience and optimism.
At AGM, we continue to see significant activity in the multifamily space. Developers are targeting underserved markets, finding creative ways to manage costs, and recalibrating return expectations. Time will tell how many deals ultimately make it to closing, but we share their optimism.